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July 17, the National Bureau of Statistics released the number of the national economy for the past half year: in the first half year total GDP 38149 billion Yuan, an increase of 6.9%. Of which the second quarter GDP grew 6.9%, same as the growth rate in the first quarter.

Faced with such situation, the National Bureau of Statistics spokesman Xing Zhihong summarized four positive factors for the current economic growth. First, the real economic development is getting better. The basis of economic development continues to consolidate. Second, demand is expanding. Economic growth momentum continues to increase. Third, the vitality of the micro-subject enhanced. Fourth, the market is expected to be better. Confidence in economic development continues to improve.

Xing Zhihong said that China's economic stability will continue to consolidate in the second half year.

Several data in the second quarter also provide support for optimism: Manufacturing and private investment growth have rebounded. Industrial profit growth is also 0.1 percentage points higher than the second quarter. Imports and exports grow rapidly. Foreign trade structure is also improving.

In fact, financial regulation has strengthened this year which will make the overall economy a slight downward adjustment. In the second quarter the economy maintained a 6.9% growth rate. There must be some other factors than expected.

Just two days before the National Bureau of Statistics released macro data, the National Financial Work Conference from July 14 to 15 passed a very clear signal----- Financial should serve economy, prevent financial risks and deepen financial reform.

The second quarter GDP grew 6.9% is same as the growth rate in the first quarter. Economist Pan Xiangdong explained the reasons: First, make up inventory led to industrial activity picked up. Second, the rebound in commodity prices led to a substantial improvement in the profits of enterprises. Third, real estate-related industries and investment recovery is driven by the recovery of the real estate market in 2016. Fourth, rising economic demand driven by the US-led developed economies rebounded. 

“6.9% is more than expected, which continues the economic rebound since last year” Minsheng Securities Research Institute Guan Qingyou said.

The survey from Newspaper Economic Observer shows: 50% of economists believe that the second quarter GDP will be 6.9%. 31% considered to be 6.7%. Second quarter to maintain a growth rate of 6.9%, it really exceeded expectations. 

“The main reason is that industrial production has accelerated significantly. Second quarter investment growth slowed slightly while Consumption and exports rebounded slightly” Bank of Jiaotong chief economist Lian Ping said.

He said that quarterly GDP data are calculated by production method. Industrial value-added data have the highest correlation with quarterly GDP data. This figure increased by 0.9 percentage points over the same period last year. 

Although some of the data in the second quarter supported the economy to maintain a 6.9% growth rate, whether these data in the second half continue to give the economy so strong pull, we need to observe.

Huarong Securities chief economist Wu Ge said: Supply strengthened while demand is not weak that makes the overall economy more stable. But the future economy will be a steady decline.

Guojin Securities chief macro analyst Bian Quanshui said: Although GDP of the second quarter is same as GDP of the previous quarter, the second quarter of the actual investment growth of 3.5% that is lower than the first quarter of 4.5%. “In the context of credit contraction, the source of funding for private investment in manufacturing investment is still a constraint.” The fourth quarter of this year or the first quarter of next year's downward pressure will exceed market expectations. 

Financial deleveraging is not over, but that is what the Chinese economy needs to do within a limited time.

The first half of the macroeconomic ending 6.9% may mean that the economy will have more space to make adjustments. The economy should be well prepared for further adjustment.

Lianping believes that China is now a rare period of a smooth period since 2010. We should use this period to accelerate the economic system reform, to resolve some of the long-term accumulated structural problems.

The National Financial Work Conference issued a clear signal: The next three years of financial work of the three tasks is "to serve the real economy, to prevent and control financial risks, deepening financial reform” while emphasizing the importance of financial sector development and financial security. Some views like “the financial return to the basic economy” “reducing the cost of the real economy” have been stressed several times.

UBS chief economist Wang Tao said: Emphasizing financial services to serve the real economy means that the trend of strengthening the supervision of various types of shadow banking activities will continue. In the coming years regulators will establish a set of various types of financial services and management of the unified regulatory policy.

Wu Ge thinks that financial work conference further emphasizes regulation. Xingye Bank, chief economist Lu Zhengwei said: Reduce the economic cost of the entity means that the financial charges will continue to be remediation and interest rates continue to rise is unlikely.

“The main goal of the second half of the macroeconomic policy is to be stable, to compress expenses and to continue to enhance tax reduction efforts. Lianpin said. 

Lu Zhengwei pointed out: it happened rarely in the past that fiscal deficit shows in the first half year. Although the first half of 2016 there was 365.1 billion Yuan of fiscal deficit, the deficit in the first half of 2017 has reached 917.8 billion Yuan.

Lu Zhengwei said: Real estate investment growth may decline with real estate sales growth. Fixed asset investment growth in the second half may decline

“GDP growth rate of 6.9% provides a more solid foundation to the implementation of the decision on the national financial work conference. The effect of financial deleveraging in the stock market as well as in the bond market has been seen. Solving debt risk can be a more important task in the second half of the year.” Guan Qingyou said.